Unlike a standard “debt crisis,” Argendana includes : after a crash, a populist government imposes price controls and an overvalued peg, imports boom, reserves drain, a run occurs, devaluation and default follow, then a conservative government implements austerity, social unrest forces early elections, and the cycle restarts. 3. A Simple Model of Argendana We model a two-period game with three players: Government (G), Private Sector (P), and International Creditors (C).
| Country | Episodes matching Argendana (1990–2025) | Primary deviation | |---------|-------------------------------------------|-------------------| | Turkey | 2018–2022 lira crisis, 2023–2025 high inflation | High but no parallel premium >40% | | Egypt | 2016, 2022–2024 devaluations, IMF programs | More external control (Gulf aid) | | Nigeria | 2016, 2020–2024 multiple exchange rates | Oil dependency reduces fiscal dominance | argendana
| Feature | Indicator | Typical Argendana Value | |---------|-----------|-------------------------| | Fiscal dominance | Central bank credit to treasury > 5% of GDP/year | 7–12% | | Exchange rate distortion | Parallel market premium | 40–120% | | Inflation inertia | Annual CPI | 50–300% (non-hyper) | | External vulnerability | Short-term debt / reserves | > 1.5x | | Political horizon | Expected time until next crisis | 2–4 years | Unlike a standard “debt crisis,” Argendana includes :